Harry Dent – Great Depression Ahead
MONDAY, APRIL 13TH, 2009
While on vacation I had the opportunity to catch up on some reading. The book I chose to read, recommended by another Gazelle’s coach was The Great Depression Ahead by Harry S. Dent.
My first response to the recommendation to reading this book was repulsion. I don’t want to believe we are headed for another great depression, and of course I certainly don’t want to pollute my mind with any notion that might further my mental capacity to believe it.
Whatever compelled me to begin reading it, I’m not sure; however I must admit one reason I did was a reminder from Jim Collins in Good to Great that all good leaders confront the brutal truth and face reality.
What did I discover? If you believe that life and history is cyclical you will get a good deal of confirmation with Harry Dent. He believes the economic, social political, commodities and many other elements move in cycles. Demographically he first gained fame with his recognition that peak spending occurs at 46-50 in economically developed countries and that is one of his leading reasons for his belief that the US and North America is headed for a economic downturn that will start this year and head all the way to near 2020. There are a lot of similarities to his cycle with the Great Depression; however Mr. Dent does not believe that this “depression” will be as bad as that Great Depression. Of course degrees here depend on who and what is affected.
I will warn you already that Harry S Dent Jr. also predicted that the DOW would reach or exceed 20,000. On the other hand he is also the person who successfully predicted Japan’s present economic downturn, when most others were blindsided by it. The latter is where much of Harry’s present forecasting is coming from based on his demographic tools combined with the additional cycles that he sees coming together at this time. You can learn more here or on his website.
Dent’s book was written prior to our electing President Obama, although he discusses that regardless of who is elected these events will come about, it will be to degrees that they will be increased or decreased yet the cycle will be inevitable.
Lest you become convinced that I am a Dent zealot, please understand that I also believe that economies are personal. Regardless the larger economy it is mostly irrelevant to what we ourselves are capable of earning. Certainly it is an influence, yet in most cases our personal experiences are a reflection on what we believe and feel we are worth versus the influence of the economy.
If you don’t believe that you can look at people who despite the past greatest boom ever in economic times they failed to participate, and the thousands who have in the past and will in this current economic climate benefit and grow despite the recession or Great Depression that Dent is forecasting.
My purpose for passing this information on regarding Harry Dent is not so much to predict and forecast future events but rather to make you aware of these forecasts and the data that Dent is predicating them on. Dent has been and may be correct again. His predictions however are based on cycles and trends that he watches. Even his book provides many opportunities for readers to prosper in the economic times ahead and offers insights into the future and what this can mean in order for each of us to take advantage of it.
I’ll provide some key points from the book for you to chew on in the next blog.
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